Will the 2nd be closer this year?
CQ Politics seems to think so as it says contest leans Republican instead of favoring the party.
Will New Mexico's Second Congressional District be more competitive this year? Possibly, according to CQ Politics.
The Washington, D.C.-based news organization moved its ranking in the district's congressional race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." The Republican in the race is restaurateur Ed Tinsley, while the Democrat is former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. In years past, the district has been a "Safe Republican" seat. Steve Pearce won re-election in each of the past two elections easily, scoring 60 percent of the vote.
But this year, with no incumbent, things could be different, according to CQ Politics. "Steve Pearce made this southern New Mexico district all but untouchable since winning the seat in 2002, but his departure to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici opens up the race," the news organization wrote. "Democratic pick-up efforts are aided by the fact that their nominee is a conservative Democrat who can appeal to a broad swath of the party."
Democrats shouldn't be readying the champagne yet, however. "Southern New Mexico’s longstanding preference for Republican representation gives Tinsley a slight edge in the race, but Teague guarantees a highly competitive contest," CQ Politics concludes.
This follows the lead of the progressive blog Swing State Project, which moved the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" earlier this week.
Democrats are fairly high on former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague, a wealthy oilman who (is) both a strong fundraiser and a self-funder. While this is an R+5.7 district, Republican Ed Tinsley has residency issues, as he spends a significant amount of his time in Sante [sic] Fe (a "liberal" city outside the district). The DCCC has signaled that this race a priority for them, having reserved $1.2 million in ad time in this district.
CQ Politics considers the First Congressional District race, between Republican Darren White and Democrat Martin Heinrich, a "Toss Up." It views the Third Congressional District, which pits Democrat Ben Ray Lujan against Republican Dan East, as a "Safe Democratic" seat.
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