CD2: Who's the frontrunner?
Competing polls make it hard to tell
There has yet to be any public polling in any race in New Mexico with the exception of the Senate race. But in the 2nd Congressional District, both Democratic candidates vying for their party's nomination on June 3 have now released internal polls that show them with substantial leads.
Harry Teague and Bill McCamley are competing for the Democratic nod to compete in November.
In a mass e-mail, the Teague campaign released the results of the poll to his supporters.
A Survey USA style poll conducted on May 9th of 420 likely primary voters showed Harry Teague leading his opponent 36 percent to 14 percent with 50 percent undecided.
According to the poll, conducted by Winning Connections for the Teague campaign, Teague continues to lead when voters are asked if they are certain of their choice. According to the polling memo, "28 percent of respondents are certain they will support Teague and 11% are certain they will support McCamley."
Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com is skeptical that the Winning Connections poll is similar to the SurveyUSA-style polling. "SurveyUSA uses an expensive RDD sample," he wrote in an e-mail to the Independent, "rarely keeps anyone on the phone for more than 2-3 minutes and introduces the call with the recorded voice of the anchor of the local affiliate station that sponsors the poll (which helps them get a decent response rate)."
Neither the campaign nor the polling company disclosed the margin of error.
"The survey," the Winning Connections polling memo stated, "is notable for the large number of undecided voters and for Teague’s 2 to 1 advantage among respondents who have an opinion."
Blumenthal wondered at the lack of inclusion of methodology along with the polling outfit's reputation. "While Winning Connections has a lot of experience doing political telemarketing, this is the first time I've heard of their doing an opinion poll," he said.
The McCamley campaign released its own internal poll in March which showed him with a large lead. That poll gave McCamley a lead of 43 percent to 22 percent with the rest undecided.
The McCamley campaign used the more well-known Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for its poll.
Be the first to comment