Obama's Latino ambassador

Democrats want to win over a crucial "swing" vote, and Bill Richardson wants to help.

In March, Gov. Bill Richardson enthusiastically endorsed Barack Obama for president before an huge crowd in Portland, Oregon. (Photo By Eyeliam/Flickr)

By Gwyneth Doland 06/13/2008

ALBUQUERQUE—Latinos will form a important voting bloc in the November presidential elections and Barack Obama has several surrogates actively courting them, including former Clinton cabinet member Federico Peña, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and New Mexico's own Gov. Bill Richardson.

Obama is working hard because statistics show this diverse demographic has not coalesced around a single candidate. And while Latinos or Hispanics comprise about 9 percent of the eligible electorate nationwide and will make up only about 6.5 percent of those who actually turn out to vote in November if the past is any indicator, it is a group that is a potential "swing vote," according to a report by the Pew Hispanic Center (Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?)."

As the authors note:

That's because they are strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map. Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 –New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37% of state's eligible electorate); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008.

And this “swing vote” demographic is going to the polls in dramatically increased numbers. When compared to 2004, turnout in 2008 showed a dramatic increase among Hispanic voters, especially California (where it doubled) and Texas (where it increased by 25 percent), the Pew Hispanic Center found.

During the Democratic primaries, Latino voters overwhelmingly backed Hillary Clinton—by a margin of two-to-one. Despite the fact that McCain comes from a border state (and supported comprehensive immigration reform), Obama appears well-placed to take on the Arizona senator. According to a May Gallup poll, Hispanics favored Obama 62 percent to 29 percent; in 2004, a similar poll showed Sen. John Kerry beating George W. Bush by only 59 to 40.

Although the Democratic candidates spent unprecedented millions on Spanish-language television ads during the primaries, what Obama must do, observers say, is simply to make himself better known—and that’s where Richardson comes in.

The governor, viewed as a gregarious everyman by some, endorsed Obama in March, and his support could help the Illinois senator in New Mexico come November, but as NMI’s Heath Haussamen has noted, big-name endorsements don’t always help a candidate.

But some say Richardson is perfectly positioned for his role as one of Obama's ambassadors.

“Governor Richardson is very influential with the Hispanic community,” according to Alex Romero, president of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce. Although Romero said he hadn’t seen much yet of Richardson’s efforts on behalf of Senator Obama, he predicted that when the governor really starts hitting the campaign trail for Obama, “People are going to care what he thinks.”

Romero recalled how, during Richardson’s presidential campaign, other Hispanic Chambers were especially eager to host the governor. “We’re very connected to Hispanic Chambers around the country…from California to Florida,” Romero said, “and when he was campaigning…they always wanted an opportunity to get him to speak to their members.”

They may be eager to hear him, but will they like what they hear? Despite Richardson’s visit to the island, Obama lost the Puerto Rico primary by a large margin. In an analysis of the Obama campaign’s Hispanic outreach, The Washington Post reported:

Puerto Rico is emerging as a field test of what has become one of the first orders of business for the Obama campaign in its transition to general-election mode: redoubling and rethinking its effort to win over Hispanic voters, a demographic it lost to Clinton and will need against Sen. John McCain. … That effort is complicated by the diversity of the Hispanic community, in which the interests of predominantly Mexican Americans in the Southwest can be very different from Cuban Americans and Puerto Ricans on the East Coast.Some observers say Obama’s Puerto Rico loss may have had to do with how comfortable Puerto Rican voters were with the Clintons, and how little they knew Obama.

Again according to the Washington Post:

The majority of Hispanics are at very best confused or uninformed about who he is," said Jorge Mursuli, executive director of Democracia USA, which registers Hispanic voters. "That's not insurmountable. . . . But in the end, any Hispanic who doesn't know him or have a relationship with him in their mind, that is a vulnerable vote that a Republican can nab.

The Obama campaign is now concentrating on getting Latino voters to feel comfortable with the candidate. Romero believes Richardson has several qualities that will help him do just that. “He’s approachable, he’s likable and he’s somebody that people find safe, someone they can talk to,” Romero said.