New voter shortage

In Bernalillo county, the number of newly registered voters this year lags behind 2004 numbers.

Some suggest that a 2005 law that put a range of restrictions on third-party voter registration drives has depressed the number of new voters this year.

RIO RANCHO -- You'd think this year of all years voter registrations would soar in Bernalillo County given the historic -- and ubiquitous -- nature of this year's election in which a U.S. senate seat is up for grabs and a hotly contested presidential race is playing out locally. 

Add to that rare convergence that Bernalillo County is home to one of the hottest congressional races in the nation, and voter registrations, by all accounts, should be surging.

Right? Well, not exactly.

While healthy, this year's activity pales in comparison to 2004, the last presidential election year, county statistics show.

Through June of this year registration had increased by 13,706 voters in Bernalillo County looking at major and minor parties. That may sound like a surge, but when compared to the 24,657 added to the rolls in the first six months of 2004, this year's increase appears rather peaked.

There is another major trend in Bernalillo County -- one that may not bode well for the GOP. Of the voter registration increase in Bernalillo County this year, Democrats made up 68 percent of the growth, Republicans 12 percent, and so-called "Declined to States," or independents, 10 percent and minor parties 10 percent. 

Four years ago, the GOP made up 20 percent of the voter growth for the first six months of the year compared to 43 percent for Democrats, 33 percent for independents and minor parties, 2.5 percent.

"That doesn't bode well for them and their party, at least in 2008," University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson said of the GOP. "They are not competing at all and they had the most interesting race in June," she said of the June 3 Senate primary featuring U.S. Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.

Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc. agreed.

"Net growth does not look good for Republicans this year," he said.

This is occurring despite a high-profile contest for the Bernalillo County-dominated 1st Congressional District featuring Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and Democrat and former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich.

What's behind such a lackluster year? 

It's unclear, but whatever it is it's probably due to several factors, analysts said.

"There were huge, huge voter registration drives in 2004," Atkeson said. "That hasn't happened this year. It still may. But I dont feel the intensity for voter registration that I felt in 2004. I just don't feel that intensity, or I am not aware of it."

UNM political science professor Christine Sierra added that Gov. Bill Richardson's political action committee, Moving America Forward, was very active four years ago in registering voters. It's not this time around.

Sanderoff added this year's lag in voter registrations compared to 2004 could be that many voters registered in the last months of 2007 when a high-profile presidential race included New Mexico's own Gov. Richardson. Or perhaps the rolls were already packed, he said.

"It was a really defining year," Sanderoff said of 2004. "Lots of people registered. We may be a little more saturated. There may be fewer people out there who need to be registered."

Besides, there's still time to make up for lost ground. Just look at 2004, he said. September and October of 2004 saw Republican growth surge by more than 13,000 voters while Democrats rolled up more than 12,000 voters during the same period.

Atkeson said an additional factor could be a 2005 law that put certain restrictions on third-party voter registrations. 

The 2005 law limits organizations to 50 registration forms at a time, requires groups to record registrars with the secretary of state's office and provide information on them and give registrations to county clerks within 48 hours. Registering ineligible voters is subject to a possible $500 fine and up to six months in jail.

Advocates say the law has a chilling effect on registration drives and groups' ability to urge people to get involved in politics. Several groups sued last week to overturn the law.

"The groups would be out there but for the legal limitations blowing them down," Atkeson said.

The lawsuit, filed last week in state District Court in Albuquerque on behalf of four organizations, asks that the 2005 law be declared unconstitutional and that Secretary of State Mary Herrera be barred from enforcing it.

Similar laws have been challenged in other states. The League of Women Voters of Florida sued in April over a law that imposes fines if groups do not turn in voter registrations by deadlines. Florida enacted the law after an earlier law was declared unconstitutional in 2006. A federal judge in Ohio set aside provisions of Ohio's election reform law in 2006, saying rules seemed to set up barriers to registering voters.

A spokesman for Gov. Bill Richardson said in a statement last week that was in response to the suit that maybe the law is worth a second look.

"While there were many good measures in this omnibus election reform bill that the governor signed ... there may be merit to reviewing the voter registration process to ensure there are not undue hardships on people who are running legitimate voter registration efforts," the spokesman said in a statement.

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