Can Obama win over older voters?
RIO RANCHO -- Forget the gender gap. Barack Obama has a generational gap to fret over.
The Democratic presidential nominee got his clock cleaned by Hillary Clinton across the country with the all-important constituency of voters 65 and older -- except, of all places, in New Mexico and a half dozen other states, according to exit poll samples released by the Associated Press on Friday.
The data from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International shows the former First Lady winning older voters in dramatic fashion in 47 states, often by double-digit leads.
But New Mexico defied the national trend, as Obama lost that group by only six percentage points, a fact that University of New Mexico professor Christine Sierra at least partially attributed to U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama. Kennedy endorsed Obama in the days leading up to New Mexico's Feb. 5 Democratic caucus.
"The Kennedy mystique still lives in New Mexico," Sierra said Friday. "Hispanics still remember the Viva Kennedy campaign of 1960. It was the first time a national presidential candidate had reached out to Hipanics. Hispanics mobilized voters ... in community after community. So to the extent that elderly people remember those days, that's a legacy that young people would not know."
Of course, the numbers reveal a potential weakness for Obama, as has been noted. He has his work cut out with older voters. Andrew Kohut, president of Pew Research Center, pointed out as much in a recent New York Times op-ed where he wrote:
The national elections in 2004 and 2006 saw younger people casting more votes for Democratic candidates than did older voters. During the last two years, polls have shown voters ages 18 to 29 aligning themselves with the Democratic party in great numbers. Indeed, they have found their chosen candidate in Barack Obama, who has carried the youth vote in 28 of 32 primary elections where exit polls were taken.
Interestingly, older voters — many of whom supported Democrats over the years — seem reluctant to support Mr. Obama. Hillary Clinton has carried the vote of people over 65 in 26 primary elections. And looking forward to the general election, the national polls now show John McCain running better against Mr. Obama among this older age group — as well as among middle-aged voters and younger voters.
Older voters are prized because as a group they are more likely to vote than individuals in other age groups, especially younger voters who Obama is particularly popular.
"The older you get the more likely you are to vote," Sierra said.
Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling, Inc. agreed that Obama appears to have his work cut out for him among older voters.
Young Democrats were more supportive of Obama than older Democrats. "Seniors were his weakest suit," Sanderoff said.
In a recent Albuquerque Journal poll, Democrats in Congressional Districts 1 and 3 were asked which of the two candidates -- Obama or Clinton -- did they prefer win the nomination. Obama polled best among younger voters, but in both districts his weakest age group was older voters, Sanderoff said.
About half of Democrats aged 18 to 34 supported Obama in both congressional districts, compared to below 40 percent of older voters, Sanderoff said.
"He's going to have to pay attention to the groups that went decisively for her," agreed Sierra. "But he's got some things going for him. He's a Democrat. and New Mexico Hispanics are Democrats. Hillary's endorsement will help as well."
Sanderoff said Obama does have some things going for him.
"Many seniors are FDR New Dealers and many will come home to the Democrats," he said. "But John McCain ... is a senior citizen. We may find that many seniors relate to him."
Below find AP's state-by-state numbers
By The Associated Press
Hillary Rodham Clinton won the votes of people 65 and older in all but three primaries where she competed with Barack Obama. The results by state:
Alabama:
Clinton 61, Obama 37.
Arkansas:
Clinton 80, Obama 16.
Arizona:
Clinton 58, Obama 30.
California:
Clinton 51, Obama 34.
Connecticut:
Clinton 50, Obama 47
Delaware:
Clinton 56, Obama 38.
Georgia:
Clinton 55, Obama 45.
Illinois:
Clinton 48, Obama 48
Indiana:
Clinton 69, Obama 30.
Kentucky:
Clinton 78, Obama 18.
Louisiana:
Clinton 53, Obama 39.
Massachusetts:
Clinton 64, Obama 33.
Maryland:
Obama 47, Clinton 45
Missouri:
Clinton 62, Obama 32.
Mississippi:
Clinton 55, Obama 43.
Montana:
Clinton 56, Obama 40.
North Carolina:
Clinton 56, Obama 41.
New Hampshire:
Clinton 48, Obama 32.
New Jersey:
Clinton 62, Obama 35.
New Mexico:
Clinton 51, Obama 45
New York:
Clinton 63, Obama 33.
Ohio:
Clinton 72, Obama 26.
Oklahoma:
Clinton 70, Obama 19.
Oregon:
Clinton 54, Obama 45.
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 63, Obama 37.
Rhode Island:
Clinton 70, Obama 29.
South Carolina:
Clinton 40, Obama 32.
South Dakota:
Clinton 66, Obama 34.
Tennessee:
Clinton 63, Obama 24.
Texas:
Clinton 65, Obama 32.
Utah:
Clinton 50, Obama 40.
Virginia:
Obama 55, Clinton 45
Vermont:
Obama 58, Clinton 41
Wisconsin:
Clinton 58, Obama 41.
West Virginia:
Clinton 67, Obama 26.
Source: Results from exit poll samples conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
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